Appendix | 163
Employment Growth in Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News MSA
RCLCO compared the projections of Moody’s Economy.com to
the local Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization
(TPO).
Both local and national employment forecasts project a
continued recovery from the recent downturn, however, they have
different growth rates over the next few decades. Moody’s projects a
1.53% from 1990 to 2005. However, when considering 2010 to 2040,
they are projecting an average annual rate of 0.5%, similar to the TPO.
The Hampton Roads TPO projects an average annual rate of 0.6%
from 2009 to 2040. Since the overall result at the end of the time period
was similar, we utilized the Moody’s year over year projections for the
strong short-term recovery, followed by slow growth (an average annual
rate of 0.3% from 2015 to 2040), far below the historical average of
statistical demand models to stay somewhat conservative in the
modeling.
Historical and Forecasted Employment, Excluding Military
Virginia Beach MSA
800,000
850,000
900,000
PROJECTED
650,000
700,000
750,000
500 000
550,000
600,000
*Hampton Roads TPO projections from 2009 to 2040 recalibrated to the 2013 MSA employment numbers without military or federal workers
,
Moody's Economy.com
Moody's Economy.com
Hampton Roads TPO Forecast*
Dominion Boulevard | City of Chesapeake | April 11, 2014 | E4-11982.40
18
Source: BLS; RCLCO; Hampton Roads TPO; Moody’s
