Exhibit VI-9
OFFICE DEMAND
DOMINION STUDY AREA
2014-2035
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 TOTAL
Virginia Beach MSA Office Emp. Growth
1
2,572 4,078 3,574 1,844
702
334
426
327
304
169
211
174
169
424
472
532
805
931 1,069 1,006
922
848
26,510
Hampton Rds Rgn Office Emp. Growth
1
1,218 1,228 1,238 1,248 1,258 1,268 1,278 1,289 1,299 1,309 1,320 1,330 1,341 1,352 1,363 1,374 1,385 1,396 1,407 1,418 1,430 1,441
29,190
SF/Total New Employee
2
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
New Office SF Demanded
643,095 1,019,600 893,425 461,025 175,378 83,577 106,470 81,650 75,880 42,175 52,772 43,525 42,147 105,978 118,050 132,927 201,345 232,703 267,225 251,523 230,400 212,030 6,195,953
% Capture in Study Area (No Emp. Core)
3
1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
Total New Study Area Office Space (No
Core)
7,717 12,235 10,721 5,532 2,105 1,003 1,278
980
911
506
633
522
506 1,272 1,417 1,595 2,416 2,792 3,207 3,018 2,765 2,544
65,675
% Capture in Study Area (As Emp. Core)
4
1% 2% 5% 10% 13% 13% 13% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
Total New Study Area Office Space (With
Core)
7,717 24,470 42,884 44,258 23,044 10,982 13,990 21,457 19,940 11,083 13,868 11,438 11,076 27,850 31,022 34,932 52,911 61,151 70,224 66,097 60,546 55,719 716,659
1
Based upon Moody's economy.com projections for office employment for MSA. It does not include military or federal employment. Region from Hampton Roads TPO. Their office projections modified to not include military or federal employment
3
Based upon CoStar data for the Southern Chesapeake submarket, of which the study area represents a large portion of land. Current and historical capture of approximately 1.2% of absorption
4
Based upon the Study Area becoming an employment core and performing similarly to the Greenbriar submarket as it matures
2
Based upon comparison of total occupied office square feet in Virginia Beach MSA from CoStar (43M SF) to total office employment per Moody's (152K). This equals approximately 280 SF/employee. This was dropped down to reflect the amount of right sizing currently happening in market, as well as
trends towards less SF/employee nationally
Exhibit VI-9
E4-11982.40
Printed: 3/27/2014
CITY OF CHESAPEAKE
