Exhibit VI-8
RETAIL DEMAND
DOMINION STUDY AREA
2014-2035
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 TOTAL
No Employment Center Scenario
Annual Base Household Change
1
44
117
217
257
240
223
214
232
216
203
187
167
170
156
149
147
150
158
153
153
151
154
3,860
Retail SF/New Household
2
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
New Retail SF Demanded
3,760 9,936 18,363 21,775 20,285 18,913 18,108 19,675 18,293 17,155 15,809 14,139 14,409 13,164 12,649 12,478 12,696 13,359 12,933 12,978 12,806 12,999 326,682
Additional SF (tourist, drive-by, employee)
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Total Study Area Baseline Retail Space
4,136 10,930 20,199 23,953 22,314 20,804 19,919 21,642 20,122 18,870 17,390 15,553 15,850 14,480 13,914 13,726 13,966 14,694 14,227 14,276 14,086 14,298 359,350
Employment Center Scenario
Annual Base Household Change
1
44
117
240
278
259
241
245
261
243
228
209
207
211
192
185
182
186
195
189
190
187
190
4,480
Retail SF/New Household
2
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
New Retail SF Demanded
3,760 9,936 20,295 23,533 21,923 20,427 20,722 22,118 20,565 19,286 17,701 17,495 17,829 16,288 15,652 15,440 15,710 16,529 16,003 16,059 15,845 16,084 379,201
Additional SF (tourist, drive-by, employee)
20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
Total Study Area Baseline Retail Space
4,512 11,923 24,354 28,240 26,307 24,512 24,867 26,542 24,678 23,143 21,241 20,994 21,394 19,546 18,782 18,528 18,852 19,835 19,204 19,271 19,015 19,301 455,041
1
Based upon the for-sale and rental demand for the study area in the employment center and no employment center scenarios
3
Based upon comparison of total retail square feet in MSA per CREED (54M) to total households per Esri (640K). It equals 85 SF/HH
Exhibit VI-8
E4-11982.40
Printed: 3/27/2014
CITY OF CHESAPEAKE
