Exhibit VI-6
FOR-SALE RESIDENTIAL DEMAND
DOMINION STUDY AREA
2014-2035
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
TOTAL
MSA Household Projections
1
637,312 643,643 649,200 656,543 664,162 671,092 677,549 683,516 689,241 694,593 699,570 704,237 708,379 712,159 716,011 719,531 722,913 726,249 729,643 733,215 736,673 740,143 743,567 747,042
Annual Household Change
5,557 7,343 7,619 6,930 6,456 5,967 5,725 5,352 4,976 4,667 4,142 3,780 3,852 3,519 3,382 3,336 3,394 3,572 3,458 3,470 3,424 3,475 103,399
Region Household Change
2
4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 115,195
% Owner Households
3
67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67%
New Owners Households
3,707 4,898 5,082 4,623 4,306 3,980 3,819 3,570 3,319 3,113 2,763 2,521 2,569 2,347 2,256 2,225 2,264 2,382 2,306 2,314 2,284 2,318
68,967
% Choose SFD
3
68% 68% 68% 68% 68% 68% 68% 68% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 62% 62% 62% 62% 62% 62% 62% 62% 62% 62% 62%
SFD Sales
0
0 2,517 3,326 3,451 3,139 2,924 2,703 2,482 2,321 2,158 2,023 1,796 1,563 1,593 1,455 1,399 1,380 1,404 1,477 1,430 1,435 1,416 1,437
44,828
% Capture in Chesapeake
4
28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28%
% Capture in Dominion Area W/O
5
5% 10% 15% 20% 20% 20% 20% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
Study Area Sales No Emp. Center
0
0
35
93
145
175
163
151
139
162
151
141
125
109
111
102
98
96
98
103
100
100
99
100
2,599
% Capture in Dominion Area W/
5
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 25% 25% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
Study Area Sales With Emp. Center
0
0
35
93
145
175
204
189
173
195
181
170
151
131
134
122
117
116
118
124
120
120
119
121
3,051
% Chose Townhome/Plex
3
27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27%
Townhome/Plex Sales
0
0
995 1,315 1,364 1,241 1,156 1,068 1,025
958
891
835
742
677
690
630
605
597
608
639
619
621
613
622
18,510
% Capture in Chesapeake
4
19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%
% Capture in Dominion Area W/O
5
5% 10% 15% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
Study Area Sales No Emp. Center
0
0
9
24
38
46
43
40
38
36
33
31
34
31
32
29
28
28
28
30
29
29
28
29
695
% Capture in Dominion Area W/
5
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 25% 25% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
Study Area Sales With Emp. Center
0
0
9
24
38
46
54
50
48
53
50
47
41
38
38
35
34
33
34
36
35
35
34
35
846
% Chose Multifamily
3
5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Multifamily Sales
0
0
195
257
267
243
226
209
305
286
266
249
221
252
257
235
226
223
226
238
231
231
228
232
5,303
% Capture in Chesapeake
4
19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%
% Capture in Dominion Area W/O
5
0% 0% 0% 10% 10% 15% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
Study Area Sales No Emp. Center
0
0
0
0
0
5
4
6
11
11
10
9
8
9
10
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
8
9
160
% Capture in Dominion Area W/
5
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
Study Area Sales With Emp. Center
0
0
2
5
7
9
11
10
14
13
12
12
12
14
14
13
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
13
251
Total W/o Emp. Core
0
0
44
117
183
226
211
197
188
208
194
182
168
150
153
140
134
132
135
142
137
138
136
138
3,453
Total W/Emp. Core
0
0
46
122
190
231
269
248
235
261
243
228
204
183
186
170
164
161
164
173
167
168
166
168
4,149
1
Moody's Economy.com
2
Hampton Roads TPO
3
Residential Databank data from 2003-2012
4
Based upon the City of Chesapeake's capture of new sales in the market from 2009-2013
5
Based upon the desirability of the study area for residential, and the availability of land in other areas
Exhibit VI-6
E4-11982.40
Printed: 3/27/2014
CITY OF CHESAPEAKE
