National Real Estate Cycle
The national economy is currently in the upturn stage, as home sales
and prices continue to rebound from the Great Recession. RCLCO
closely monitors the economic cycles and has predicted based on
research into the history of past cycles and the cyclical nature of the
economy that
the next downturn should begin around 2017
with a
real estate activity will change. The further into the cycle, the more
feverish the market becomes, with developers making progressively
more aggressive assumptions than they would at the beginning of the
cycle. Both the timing and changing nature of real estate activity in all of
the future cycles is critical to the Dominion Boulevard development, and
margin of error of a year or two. This downturn will probably occur after
the 2016 elections, bottoming in 2018. In the lead up to the next peak,
needs to be continually monitored. The study area will be developing
over many different real estate cycles.
S ll
P = Price
P > GAV
RCLCO Real Estate Market Cycle Outlook
Peak
Peak
e
Sell
P
P
P > GAV
RC = Replacement Cost
Bottom
P < RC
P < RC
Acquire
Bottom
Acquire
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Dominion Boulevard | City of Chesapeake | April 11, 2014 | E4-11982.40
25
Source: RCLCO
